Category
🥇
SportsTranscript
00:00One hour down, hour two on deck, hour three after that.
00:04It's what we do.
00:05It's a Tuesday morning.
00:06We're getting you ready.
00:07It's cold in most of the country,
00:08but the heat is on with the SportsGrid network.
00:11So Joe, temperature vibes in the room.
00:13We talked a little college football.
00:14We talked a little NBA action.
00:16We got NFL topics,
00:18which include the AFC and NFC championship games
00:20and some of those lines moving forward.
00:22The head coaching cycle starting to turn now.
00:25How are we doing this morning?
00:26Are we hanging in there?
00:27Are we feeling good after an hour?
00:28Do you want to host hour number two?
00:29Just let me know.
00:32I'm sorry.
00:33I couldn't hear you.
00:33Yeah, no, no, we're good, Donny.
00:35It's all you, my man.
00:37I'm just glad to be a part of it here.
00:40I know Ben did a great job last night.
00:43So being able to sit in his chair,
00:46it's an honor of epic proportions here this morning, Donny.
00:51Ah, sitting in the chair
00:52being the absolute topic of conversation last night
00:55around the SportsGrid network.
00:56But we'll get to that later.
00:56Maybe we can do that.
00:58But in the NFL, I'm telling you right now, Joe,
01:00you said, well, Donny, you're hosting this morning.
01:02What actually happened?
01:03Well, I had a Skype interview yesterday
01:04with the Chicago Bears,
01:05just like millions of Americans
01:07to try to get the head coaching job for the Bears.
01:09They settled on a head coach.
01:12And I got to tell you, he's the prize out there right now.
01:14And it's Ben Johnson going to the Chicago Bears
01:18after having a successful run as offensive coordinator
01:21for the Detroit Lions.
01:22And we'll start there first.
01:23Let me ask you this question.
01:25We know that Ben Johnson was the hot hire
01:27coming into this cycle.
01:28He could probably pick the team that he wanted.
01:31He ends up with the Chicago Bears.
01:33But during this whole process,
01:35did you feel like he was the front runner in Chicago
01:37because they really cast that wide net
01:39and talked to old coaches, young coaches,
01:42coaches that were ready to be head coaches,
01:43coaches that weren't ready to be head coaches here.
01:46Did you think they settled on the correct guy for them?
01:48And also, did you agree with interviewing
01:51like 50 people, it felt like?
01:54Well, listen, I'd rather you leave no stone unturned
01:59and get it right this time,
02:01as opposed to continuing down the same path
02:03that you've done year after year
02:05and continue to make the wrong decisions.
02:07You've got more talent and actually cap space
02:10on this team than anybody else.
02:13There is literally no excuse for you
02:15not to get the right guy in the building
02:18to help your number one pick in Caleb Ball-Williams,
02:23who you will eventually become.
02:25And it's kind of crazy, right?
02:27Because you got a lot on the line now, Chicago,
02:30because the guy you passed up on
02:33in order to take Caleb Williams
02:35is playing in the NFC Championship game
02:38and he's leading his team.
02:39So you better get this next hire right
02:42for a litany of reasons.
02:44But I think it was down to him and McCarthy.
02:47And the big question was,
02:49and I would have been okay with McCarthy too,
02:52and giving him a guy that has a history
02:54of working with quarterbacks there,
02:56some pretty good ones too.
02:58I'd have been all right with that pick,
03:00but I also think the ability to be able to take
03:03your OC from your division rival,
03:07I think they nailed it.
03:08They got the guy they want.
03:10We'll see if it works out,
03:12but certainly I think given the choice,
03:15they probably made the right one,
03:16at least in the short term.
03:18Lots still to be determined in the longterm
03:21on whether they got this hire right.
03:23You're right about that, Joe,
03:24because you wake up this morning as a Chicago Bears fan.
03:27I don't think anybody's going like,
03:28oh, man, come on.
03:29We wanted McCarthy over Ben Johnson.
03:31This was the prize here.
03:32This is going to get your fan base excited.
03:34But I always like to go back to like,
03:36how did we actually get to this place?
03:39And sometimes you can say, you know what?
03:40If you listen to the fans,
03:41you end up sitting with the fans.
03:42There's like a front office guy or head coach.
03:44You've heard that throughout the years.
03:45But I got to tell you,
03:46a lot of times I think the fans know way more
03:49and don't overestimate what the actual options are.
03:52Because last year, Joe,
03:54did anybody who was a Bears fan
03:55or around the NFL league circles,
03:57or even fans of other teams go, you know what?
04:00The right move is bringing Matt Eberfloes back
04:02to hone this offense here and this young football team.
04:06We didn't think that was possible.
04:07And they said, you know what?
04:08We're going to bring in Shane Waldron here
04:10as the offensive coordinator to be the curator
04:13for Caleb Williams coming into the NFL.
04:15And it was a disaster
04:16that it felt like we all saw this coming.
04:19Forget about watching hard knocks
04:21and getting behind the scenes.
04:22Nobody said, oh, well, Eberfloes coming back.
04:24And particularly when last year,
04:26maybe the hottest job once again
04:28in the coaching market was the Bears.
04:30They didn't even call guys like Jim Harbaugh.
04:31They're like, you know what?
04:33No good for us.
04:34Eberfloes is better.
04:35So going from Eberfloes
04:37and making the mistake there to bring him back,
04:39I think they corrected that mistake.
04:41And I liked the fact that Caleb Williams,
04:43obviously the offense needs to get going.
04:45There's talent at running back.
04:47There's talent at wide receiver.
04:48As you said, Joe, there's a ton of cap space.
04:50This was a job and a destination
04:52that you should want to go to.
04:53And I think they got the best of it.
04:56Yeah, I think they did too.
04:57But you know, I am not a big fan
05:00of keeping the general manager that hired
05:04or made the decision to keep Eberfloes in the building.
05:09I'm not a big fan of thinking somehow or another
05:13they're just, oh, they got it wrong.
05:17Unless he was told to keep Eberfloes,
05:19I don't know why we have him in still Ryan Pohl's
05:23still as the GM in Chicago.
05:25Oh, and by the way, I have no idea what they're doing
05:27in Jacksonville with Trent Falke as well.
05:29So I think if you're gonna clean house
05:32and fire a guy mid-season
05:35and you're the guy that hired him or decided to keep him,
05:38what, I mean, what are we doing here?
05:41You know, if you're gonna clean house,
05:42you need to clean house.
05:43You need to get fresh eyes in there
05:46and somebody that can hire their own head coach
05:49and the own system that they know.
05:51And unfortunately, I do not understand
05:54what some of these owners do here
05:56when they keep one and not the others beyond me.
06:00I'd say like in professional sports
06:02and particularly Joe, the NFL,
06:04it's one of the few marketplaces where broadcast business,
06:07sports business, owning a hardware store on the corner,
06:11a pizza shop, where if you don't provide a good product
06:14on the field, you lose money and you go out of business.
06:17No matter what happens to the Chicago Bears,
06:19they could go, oh, in 17, the next decade,
06:22they will still be sold out in Chicago.
06:24They will make a ton of money and they'll have 50 teams,
06:27excuse me, 50 people trying to buy that team
06:29for billions more than it's actually worth.
06:31So there is no pressure of, you know,
06:33you're getting relegated.
06:34Like what you say in the EPL, it's like,
06:36hey man, if we don't perform, we gotta spend some money.
06:37No, you do whatever you want at this spot.
06:39I just think for Bears fans here who deserve so much better
06:42than they've gotten over the past 25 to 30 years
06:44since their last Super Bowl victory in 1985, 1986,
06:48that this finally could work out.
06:50But let's also take a look at the ramifications
06:52because we'll get the Detroit side of it here,
06:54but Chicago moving forward,
06:55Detroit's still gonna be a good football team.
06:57Minnesota certainly looks like
06:58they're still gonna be a good football team,
06:59depending on which quarterback they go with.
07:01Will it be JJ McCarthy?
07:03The Green Bay Packers are a very good organization
07:05still there.
07:06What are the expectations for you,
07:08for first year coach Ben Johnson
07:11and the Chicago Bears next year?
07:14Well, I think the top priority, Donnie,
07:18is that you better make Caleb Williams
07:21as good as Kingsbury has made Jane Daniels.
07:25Cause that's what you're always going to be compared to.
07:29Period.
07:30You know, that's it.
07:31Number one and number two,
07:32you passed up on the guy
07:34that's in the NFC championship game right now.
07:37And you instead went for Caleb Williams,
07:40but didn't give him the same OC.
07:42Now you've adjusted that
07:44and you apparently have a 38 years old,
07:46the next hot coordinator, head coach.
07:49And by the way, they don't always work out, Donnie.
07:51So again, you know, you gotta have some patience,
07:55but I think that we need to see that progression
07:58from Caleb Williams next season with Ben Johnson.
08:01We need to see this offense show up and show out.
08:05We need to see the offensive line protect him.
08:08That's all on Ben Johnson.
08:10Everything else, as far as I'm concerned,
08:12he gets himself a good defensive coordinator,
08:15a good special teams guy.
08:17And the next couple of hires are extremely important
08:20for the Bears here moving forward.
08:23Yeah, this isn't Sam Donald, right Joe?
08:24It's not a reclamation project.
08:26This was a kid that people and organizations were tanking
08:29and hoping they had a chance to get Caleb Williams.
08:32This is also a football team
08:33that has a lot of money to spend
08:35and already some key components in the building.
08:37So if we're looking at,
08:38look what I did with Jared Goff in this offense.
08:41Now I have more arm strength and talent in Caleb Williams
08:44and a much more mobile and athletic quarterback.
08:46Let's see what happens.
08:47But I understand people out there are gonna knock and say,
08:49well, Ben Johnson needs a guy that stays in the pocket
08:52and delivers on time.
08:53Caleb Williams is much more explosive.
08:55But if you're trusting Ben Johnson
08:56to turn an offense like Detroit
08:58into a powerhouse with Jared Goff,
09:00those same expectations absolutely should be there
09:03for the Chicago Bears.
09:04And as Joe pointed out,
09:05we're expecting things to turn around quickly here.
09:07This is not, ah, four and 13 next year.
09:10I'm just getting my feet wet.
09:11You are expecting to perform next year.
09:13Let's talk about the opposite side,
09:15the Detroit Lions next and where they sit.
09:19Super Bowls are hard to win.
09:21Super Bowls are hard to get to.
09:23We understand the heartbreak of an NFL season
09:25that might end in just one game.
09:27And we saw that with the Detroit Lions show
09:29where you think you're the number one seed, which you are.
09:32You think you're gonna play like the number one seed,
09:34which you didn't.
09:36You didn't even get to the NFC Championship game.
09:37You got out-muscled into your own building
09:40and the season ends abruptly,
09:42which means players are going to change.
09:44Players are going to get older.
09:46Also, coaching staffs are not going to be the same.
09:49And that certainly now is an effect for the Detroit Lions.
09:52But the one thing that we do always talk about
09:54is how long can those Super Bowl win those actually last?
09:58And for Detroit, Dan Campbell, we got a clip here
10:00and he's gonna try to explain that.
10:02Yeah, I do.
10:03I do, man.
10:04I think that's, you know, we talk about that core,
10:06that core group is still intact.
10:08And some of these guys are now,
10:09you know, we've signed some back,
10:11some are up on contracts and that'll be ongoing.
10:15But yeah, we absolutely do.
10:17You know, and I think the most important thing
10:18is you wanna know you got your culture,
10:21you got your identity and you got players
10:24and that fit into that.
10:25And we've got that.
10:26Like we got players in every pivotal position
10:30you can ask for to have success.
10:33And those guys are made the right way.
10:35So absolutely our window is open.
10:38There you go.
10:39You wouldn't expect anything less from Dan Campbell.
10:41Say, ah man, window's shut
10:43and looking for my next job at this point.
10:44There's a lot of talent still in that room.
10:46But the credit goes to Dan Campbell
10:48for being the head coach.
10:49Yes, he cultivated that culture.
10:51That turns out, you know what?
10:52We could have a pretty good foundation for a franchise
10:55that hasn't seen a lot of success
10:56over the past 50 years or so.
10:58But a lot of that success also, Joe,
11:01went to Ben Johnson, the creative offensive coordinator
11:04that's now not going to be in that building.
11:06And also there is a defensive coordinator we'll get to
11:08who's probably leading as well.
11:10Talk to me about your thought process now
11:12with Detroit moving forward,
11:13at least without Ben Johnson today.
11:18Well, the problem is we're gonna learn rather quickly
11:20whether or not Ben Johnson was responsible
11:24for the resurgence of Jared Goff
11:27or if Jared Goff played a big role
11:32in helping him execute that offense.
11:34I think that's still to be determined here.
11:38But I can tell you this, they are,
11:40and I agree with Dan Campbell,
11:42they have the things that matter most
11:45for a organization to have success long-term
11:48are the things he talked about.
11:50You have an identity, you have the players,
11:52you have a culture in place.
11:54We have seen that work, consistency works.
11:58So now what we've got to see from Dan Campbell
12:01in this front office is the ability to replace
12:05the Ben Johnsons or the defensive coordinator if he leaves.
12:10You've got to be able to plug and play those guys.
12:13Baltimore's done it, Harbaugh's done it for years
12:16and it seems to work
12:18and they still find themselves in the playoffs.
12:21So that's the next step here for Dan Campbell in Detroit
12:25is that if these coordinators were that good
12:28that it was all about them,
12:30well then you better make sure their replacements
12:32are every bit as good here and can motivate these guys.
12:35So I think the hiring of the replacements
12:39is that next step to figure out
12:41whether Dan Campbell and Detroit
12:43and that window is still open.
12:45Now you're right about that
12:46because the framework of that football team
12:48is still going to be there.
12:49But as we know in the NFL, it's not like any other league,
12:52like injuries are going to happen,
12:54attrition is going to happen.
12:55Yes, they had a lot of attrition and injuries on defense
12:57which you can't make up for, not an excuse,
12:59but they did have it.
13:00But that offense for most of the year
13:01was completely intact and humming along as Ben Johnson.
13:05They scored more points than anybody else in the NFL.
13:08And if you're looking at some of those statistics
13:10coming into the year, we expected a good team.
13:1210 and a half win total, they wound up with 15 wins.
13:15Best record in the NFL, 10 to one price,
13:17nailed that as well.
13:18NFC title was a five to one price.
13:20They didn't win that.
13:21And obviously the Superbowl, a 12 to one, they didn't.
13:23But the expectations, and you saw like the raw emotion
13:26for Dan Campbell after that game
13:28ended against the Commanders.
13:29Whereas he never thought,
13:31and neither did the fan base and rightfully so,
13:32that that was going to be lost on that night.
13:34They didn't think it would be that explosive
13:36where it's like, wow, how did this go wrong?
13:38Open up the game with a touchdown lead.
13:39Next thing you know, a five turnover struggle
13:42for our offense.
13:43We don't force any turnovers and get beat by double digits.
13:47We understand things are going to change in the NFL
13:49and how it goes down,
13:50but that's as devastating a loss as you're going to have.
13:52And also, it's not as if it's like,
13:54hey man, we're like the Kansas City Chiefs.
13:56The past decade, we got the six of these things.
13:59Didn't work out in our favor tonight.
14:00Won two Superbowls in the past.
14:02We'll get it back together.
14:03This was a team and a city starving for anything
14:07that they were getting great football all season long
14:09and figured, you know what?
14:11If we don't win the Superbowl,
14:12it looks like at least we're going to get there
14:14with home field advantage
14:15and to not even make the NFC title game,
14:18that's as devastating as it gets.
14:21Yeah, it is.
14:23And it's unfortunate the way it is,
14:26but they, listen, they overcame a ton of injuries
14:29on the defensive side,
14:30but ultimately when it mattered the most
14:33against the better competition, that was, you know,
14:36styles make fights and not having the best
14:39or one of the best top three defensive players in the league
14:44who somehow or another didn't play a snap
14:47because he got hurt from what, week five on
14:49and still led the team in sacks.
14:52That's, you know, it's very hard to overcome that
14:56and expect to win a championship.
14:59And I think they've got to get him back in there
15:02and get a couple of other guys signed and restock.
15:06I think they'll be just fine in that division
15:09because I do think ultimately that team,
15:12as long as it continues to have to go through Detroit,
15:15I think they're going to have a chance
15:17to at least play for a Superbowl here.
15:20They have all the pieces they need.
15:23They, now they just got to fine tune it, right?
15:25Make the next hire, get the new guys in there
15:28and put it together and start again next year.
15:31There is no reason with the talent they have
15:33on both sides of that ball
15:34that they should not be competing for an NFC championship
15:38over the next couple of years.
15:40Let me ask you this question quickly too,
15:42because we understand the whole grit mentality
15:45around Detroit and they like to, you know,
15:46bring their sort of set of pain,
15:48the set of rules themselves.
15:49Are they going outside the building
15:52for the offensive coordinator?
15:53Because the Philadelphia Eagles tried that
15:54with Brian Johnson, didn't work at all.
15:56They go outside the building with Kelly Moore, it worked.
15:58Are they staying in-house for this OC
16:00or are they going out of house?
16:02Yeah, that's going to be the interesting part.
16:04And how many guys do we really trust in order to go?
16:08Listen, if you want to, if Jared Goff is comfortable
16:11with what's in the building and you have enough faith,
16:14by all means, but again,
16:16we're talking about Ben Johnson was 38 years old.
16:18So who's the guy behind him?
16:21I mean, who is the guy in building
16:23that you're going to trust?
16:24I think you have to go outside at this point.
16:27Yeah, we'll see what happens because if you do go outside,
16:30that's not a job that, oh, hey,
16:31they were too good last year on offense.
16:32That's a lot of weapons you would want to certainly coach
16:35and see what happens.
16:36Talking about coaching searches,
16:37we still got five teams out there looking for a coach.
16:40Let's talk about those spots.
16:43Somebody is going to get paid.
16:44There's five spots left in the NFL to have your dream
16:47come true and be an NFL coach.
16:50That's the Cowboys, that's the Jaguars,
16:51that's the Jets, Raiders, and the Saints.
16:53So Joe Ranieri, let's go through these teams here
16:56because we're going to start simply here.
16:58I want to ask you, if you were a head coach
17:00and all five spots that were open offered you a job,
17:04Cowboys, Jaguars, Jets, Raiders, and Saints,
17:07which team are you choosing first to go to?
17:12I mean, as crazy as it is,
17:16the Raiders are the most intriguing
17:19just because they are going to have more cap room,
17:24more draft capital.
17:27There's no GM there yet,
17:30but it's already been decided that whoever they end up
17:34hiring is going to have a lot of say in the personnel
17:38and where they go from here.
17:40So, you know, they are sitting pretty good
17:43with that, you know, cap space, draft capital,
17:46and an influence over personnel decisions,
17:50and there's no general manager there yet.
17:52So call me crazy.
17:55Yeah, I think if you're looking long-term
17:57to build something and really put your stamp on it,
18:01I think you have the best chance with the Raiders.
18:04We know Woody Johnson's a few fries short of a happy meal.
18:07Who wants to work for the Cowboys and Jerry?
18:10The Jags, nobody wants to work for Trent Balke already.
18:13We know this.
18:15And the Saints, they got a lot of other issues here.
18:18So I think the Raiders is the most appealing job
18:21from a long-term basis
18:23where we're looking to build something here,
18:25and you've got all the cards
18:28and all the assets available to you.
18:30I think the Raiders is the best job that's left.
18:34From a living perspective,
18:36I would agree with you with the Raiders.
18:37Maybe a couple million dollar house in Henderson,
18:40little Lake Las Vegas, you got the Strip out there,
18:42wonderful restaurants, world-class entertainment
18:44all the way through.
18:45But that division itself scares me to death
18:48if I'm going to take the Raiders job
18:50with the coaches and the quarterbacks
18:52I'm going to have to tangle with on a year-to-year basis.
18:55So when I look up and down the schedule and say,
18:57where would I like to go, they're not great spots.
19:00And the reason being is it's not as if
19:02the Super Bowl champion wins.
19:04I can't say, hey, you know what,
19:05Andy Reid's retiring, like, man, I get my homes,
19:07I get this organization, let me slide in.
19:10Like, there are issues all the way across the board.
19:12I actually like the Jaguar spot for me,
19:15just for the simple fact is,
19:16I think that division I can compete in
19:18over the next five to six years.
19:20I already have what I think is my franchise quarterback,
19:22money to spend and owner willing to spend,
19:24but at the same time, it is Jacksonville.
19:27Things haven't worked out all that well.
19:29They've hired bad general managers,
19:31as we talk about Balky, who sometimes keeps staying there.
19:34You've made decisions on,
19:35hey, I think Urban Meyer's best for my franchise,
19:37which means who is making those decisions
19:39that's going to make the decision
19:40that's going to supposedly help me
19:42take the Jaguars to the Super Bowl.
19:44But if we are looking now for you
19:45as the worst place to go between the Cowboys,
19:49Jaguars, Jets, Raiders, and Saints,
19:50where are you not going to, Joe?
19:54Yeah, well, I'm not going to the Cowboys.
19:57Sorry, just not happening.
19:59I'm not working for Jerry.
20:01Jerry is obviously, you know, if I'm looking at it,
20:05you basically set Mike McCarthy up to fail
20:08by doing absolutely nothing in the off season last year,
20:12and then not renewing or renegotiating his contract
20:16and having him walk into a season
20:18as basically a lame duck coach.
20:20So I just think that you're going to have to,
20:24it'd be great to be the Cowboys,
20:26but the I-have-to-win-now mentality of the Cowboys,
20:31and every time you don't, I'm sorry, man.
20:34It's just, it's either,
20:36what have you done for me lately, or you're out.
20:38I think there's a few other jobs
20:40where you'll be given a lot of rope
20:42and a lot of opportunities to be able to build something
20:45like Dan Campbell did in Detroit, for instance,
20:49and bring in a culture and bring in a winning mentality
20:52and bring in the right guys.
20:54You're never going to have that kind of say in Dallas,
20:56and that's the problem.
20:58Yeah, you're right about that,
20:59because the issue with the Dallas spot
21:01is not actually that you won't get paid a lot of money,
21:03because you will.
21:04It's not that you're going to live in a fantastic area,
21:07because the Dallas Metroplex is absolutely tremendous,
21:09but it's the fact that you might be sitting there
21:12on a Friday with your game plan,
21:14and old Jerrick comes down and goes,
21:16I want you to get Ezekiel Elliot a couple of carries
21:18in this game down by the goal line.
21:19Like, okay, boss, thanks for that.
21:21And there goes my game plan for this weekend.
21:23But if we are looking at spots that just are tough,
21:25like the New York Jets are like the poster child
21:28for crazy foundational structural issues that you have.
21:32And they date way back.
21:34This just doesn't start like,
21:35hey, Rex Ryan had a couple of good years there.
21:37This goes back a long time
21:38where this team just doesn't make the playoffs.
21:40And I always go back to hard knocks.
21:42This is probably what, a decade, decade and a half ago,
21:44where Darrell Rivas was the best football player in the NFL
21:48and just so happened to play for the Jets
21:49at the cornerback position.
21:50And they haggled and haggled and haggled
21:53instead of getting that done because Woody Johnson
21:56just said, I'm not paying you this money
21:58and I'm going to make a point
21:59to make my football team worse by doing that.
22:01Good luck coaching the Jets.
22:03More NFL Topics next, right here on The Early Line.
22:07It's never too early to look at the Super Bowl.
22:10Boots will be on the ground,
22:11the Sports Grid Network live in New Orleans
22:14for an exciting week.
22:15The question is, we don't know
22:17who's actually going to be playing that week
22:18until AFC-NFC Championship weekend is completed,
22:22which is this Sunday, and I can't wait for it.
22:24And this morning, just looking at my wall here,
22:26I have a couple of jerseys in the studio here
22:28that I like to glance up and look at,
22:29players that have won me money,
22:31great football players that I adore.
22:33And side by side, Joe, in my office,
22:36I have Josh Allen and I have Jalen Hurts.
22:40So before we get to the look ahead lines
22:43and how they might lay out,
22:44let me ask you this question.
22:46From a fan perspective,
22:48who do you want to see line up in the Super Bowl
22:51as the matchup?
22:55Well, I don't think you can go wrong
22:59with either the Bills or Kansas City
23:00because both bring extraordinary narratives to the field.
23:05So if it's Kansas City,
23:07they're going to be looking to do something historic
23:09in the NFL and have the three-peat, right?
23:13With Patrick Mahomes and company,
23:14then that'll be a dominating storyline.
23:17If it is Buffalo, then finally Josh Allen is,
23:22the Peyton Manning finally getting past Tom Brady
23:27kind of situation here at Mahomes.
23:28Can he finally get there?
23:30And then on the other side,
23:31Jaden Daniels doing something
23:33that we've never seen any rookie quarterback do.
23:36Could he carry this team to a Super Bowl title?
23:42That would be phenomenal.
23:43And then of course, Philadelphia,
23:45no shortage of narratives there as well.
23:49And you know this, Donnie, the Saquon Barkley,
23:52could it be a dominant running back,
23:55not a quarterback, a dominant running back
23:57can win you a Super Bowl title.
24:00And this is what the Giants originally thought
24:03when they drafted him, correct me if I'm wrong here,
24:05that that was why they drafted him
24:07as high as they drafted him
24:08because they believed he was that kind of player.
24:11Can that finally come to fruition in Philadelphia
24:15and you can win a Super Bowl on a running back
24:18with a running back more than anything else?
24:21So I think they all, the final four here
24:24provide fantastic narratives and interest
24:27no matter who ends up advancing.
24:30Now we'll get into the spreads and the hypotheticals
24:32in just a moment here and analyze those.
24:34But I always like to say this
24:36because the NFL is a business show.
24:38Who does the NFL want to show up in the Super Bowl,
24:42which is the bigger question?
24:45Yeah, well, they want Mahomes and company
24:49to go in and do something that's never been.
24:51Absolutely, they would.
24:53But I think they'd be just as happy with Buffalo
24:56getting back with Josh Allen finally being,
24:59I mean, having Mahomes and Allen battle every year
25:02from here on out is never, I think, a bad thing for the NFL.
25:08And I think if they can get a rookie quarterback
25:11to take his team and lead them to a Super Bowl
25:14with Washington, does it get any better than that, Donnie?
25:18I mean, we're talking historic on so many different levels
25:22what this kid and this organization,
25:25and let's face it, the NFL would love to stick it
25:28to the former owner of the Washington Commanders,
25:31would they not?
25:32See what happens?
25:33We get you out of the league
25:34and look what happens to your team.
25:35So yeah, there's, I think, a little bit of pride there
25:40with the NFL if they could get the Commanders in also.
25:43You're right about the Commanders.
25:45And kids today, as I like to say,
25:47don't understand how impactful that Washington franchise was
25:50over the last 50 to 60 years.
25:52When Daniel Snyder took over,
25:54FedEx Field, Jack Kent Cook Stadium,
25:56what it was called at the beginning of it,
25:57they had the longest season ticket waiting list
26:00in the NFL by a wide margin.
26:02By the time Daniel Snyder sold the team,
26:04they couldn't even sell their games
26:06that are basically fill that half full
26:07with their own fans at this point.
26:09So finally buying back in, you're right,
26:11the ultimate dagger for him would be like,
26:13wow, as soon as I get out,
26:14they just make good hires and good draft picks
26:16and away they go and win Super Bowls.
26:18That's something to watch out for.
26:19But if we do look at the hypotheticals
26:21and first starting with the Eagles,
26:23making it to the Super Bowl,
26:25one and a half and one and a half,
26:27both of those plus money,
26:29whether it's the Bills or the Chiefs.
26:31So let's go there.
26:32Bills, Eagles, Chiefs, Eagles.
26:34Do you agree with the hypotheticals
26:36that in both of those scenarios,
26:38the Eagles will be the underdogs in the Super Bowl?
26:42Well, and I think yes,
26:44because the Chiefs or the Bills
26:46will have the best quarterback on the field
26:48and that matters.
26:49And no disrespect to Jalen Hurts,
26:51but Jalen Hurts is not in that same breath
26:55as Josh Allen and Mahomes.
26:59So I do agree that the AFC,
27:01whoever it's gonna be,
27:02is likely going to be the favorite
27:04simply because of those two guys, right?
27:07I mean, if Josh Allen wins the MVP this year,
27:11which he probably will,
27:13you got Mahomes already,
27:16and not taking anything away from Jalen Hurts,
27:19but let's be realistic here.
27:22It's just not in that same category just yet.
27:25And I do think the Commanders will be interesting
27:28because I think that number might even be a little lower.
27:30I think if it's the Chiefs Commanders
27:32or even Bills Commanders,
27:33that thing will get much closer to five and a half, six,
27:37than it will three and a half or four.
27:41Yeah, it'll be interesting to see too,
27:42because the Eagles and the Chiefs had played before,
27:45but so many times where
27:47when you enter into a championship spot,
27:48like I'm an Eagles fan,
27:49in 2017, it's like, boy,
27:51for us to win our first Super Bowl,
27:53we actually got to beat Tom Brady and New England Patriots.
27:55I mean, like my goodness here.
27:56So having said that, like the Eagles have won,
27:58but the Eagles lining up against the Chiefs,
28:00we were just here with a double-digit lead
28:03and it's Patrick Wilhelms and it's Andy Reid
28:04and they beat us.
28:05Like they know how to win championships.
28:07They're gunning for the third straight.
28:08They know how to do it.
28:10Whereas the Buffalo Bills get there
28:11and I'm not knocking the Bills,
28:13but if the Bills win,
28:15which they did this past weekend
28:16in a Titanic matchup against the Ravens,
28:18then vanquish their playoff enemies in Kansas City.
28:22I'm not saying, but I'm saying like,
28:23hey, we finally got back to the promised land at this point.
28:26And my goodness, it's been a long time.
28:28It's been what, 30, 40 years since the early nineties,
28:31since we actually got in to the Super Bowl,
28:33that they're happy with that.
28:34But if I'm an Eagles fan,
28:36I'm actually leaning towards
28:37hopefully playing the Buffalo Bills,
28:38even though, Joe, I actually think
28:40the Bills are a more talented team overall
28:42with a more explosive quarterback.
28:44And that's crazy talking about Patrick Wilhelms,
28:46but we understand so many years of watching,
28:48they just win Kansas City.
28:50They're not gonna fracture
28:51if they're down 14 to three in the first quarter.
28:54They're not gonna be like,
28:55oh my goodness, the lights are too bright at this point.
28:57So for me, and also from an intrigue standpoint,
29:00I would love the Bills to get there.
29:01Because Joe, we've been around the block
29:02multiple times here.
29:04We just got through the Patriots dynasty.
29:06It was like, we're just doing content.
29:07We got to talk about Tom Brady and the Patriots again,
29:09and Bill Belichick, my goodness.
29:11Every year we talk about Kansas City.
29:13So I think it will be refreshing if the Bills got there,
29:16a new fan base in there, a new hit type of talking points.
29:20Josh Allen is fun to root for.
29:21That would be interesting.
29:22But let's flip it over to the opposite side
29:24and talk if the Commanders make the Super Bowl.
29:27Interesting enough, if the Eagles are in there,
29:29it's plus one and a half,
29:30and it's plus one and a half
29:31depending on who they're playing.
29:33The Commanders, same thing,
29:35plus four and a half and plus four and a half.
29:36Bills' Commanders, Chiefs' Commanders.
29:39Me, as I said again, being a big time Eagles fan,
29:41it would break my heart.
29:42But I got to tell you, it would be intriguing
29:45if a rookie quarterback of the Commanders
29:48is in the Super Bowl.
29:51Yeah, well, think about it, right?
29:53So Jaden Daniels versus Patrick Mahomes,
29:56the old school, new school, the same old, same old,
29:59or the rookie and building a new dynasty there in Washington.
30:05It is fascinating, whoever it is that's going to advance.
30:09But I also agree that the AFC should be the favorite
30:14because either way, you're talking about two
30:17of the top three or four quarterbacks in the league.
30:21They are always going to be looked at
30:23in a favorable light, certainly in the market.
30:26And experience matters there too
30:29because if Mahomes ends up making it,
30:31whether it's the Eagles or whether it's Washington,
30:35they're always going to have the market support there.
30:39And in likelihood, that number would rise as well.
30:42So I think the Eagles, a lot is going to depend
30:46on how the Eagles look against this Commanders
30:49and Jaden Daniel team.
30:51And that line might move differently,
30:54no matter who it is that they're playing,
30:55depending on how they look this week.
30:58No doubt about it.
30:59If you're looking at the FanBull Sportsbook right now
31:00and the odds to win the Super Bowl is to fill it up,
31:02the Eagles had a plus 180 price as the favorites,
31:05the Chiefs and the Bills followed by the Commanders.
31:07You might say, wait a second, does it make sense
31:09how the Eagles underdogs in the Super Bowl favorites
31:11to win it?
31:12Understand the Eagles path to victory,
31:14technically easier to go through Washington
31:17than the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs
31:19wearing off with a minus one and a half
31:21to plus one and a half spread here.
31:22It makes sense, it does.
31:23Let's make sense of the National Championship.
31:25Mike Blewett joins us next.
31:27Boots on the ground, people.
31:30From one championship game
31:31to multiple championship games this weekend,
31:34the AFC Championship Game and the NFC Championship Game.
31:37I'm Donnie Wrightside, he's Joe Boneri,
31:39once again joined by Mike Blewett to talk some NFL action.
31:42And we'll get to the second game of the day.
31:44It's the Buffalo Bills and it's the Kansas City Chiefs.
31:466.30 p.m. kickoff out at Arrowhead.
31:49You take a look at Mahomes at the Fandula Sportsbook,
31:52a one and a half point favorite.
31:53Shows a lot of respect for those Buffalo Bills
31:56and a total that opened up at 47 and a half
31:58and still sits at 47 and a half today.
32:01When you saw the opening numbers here, Mike,
32:03for this game, what were your first thoughts?
32:06I think it makes sense.
32:07Maybe you could get a little bit more respect
32:09for the Chiefs being at home,
32:11but they were never gonna make it more than a field goal.
32:14So this settled in right about where I thought it would.
32:18If you're a Chiefs backer, I wouldn't mess with the points.
32:20They've shown their ability to win close games.
32:23I would just take the money line
32:25at minus 126 versus minus 114 or minus 110.
32:30I think you don't worry about that juice at all.
32:34I do think a couple of things,
32:36and I've been a robot on the Chiefs really
32:40for the last three months,
32:43is that I still think that Patrick Mahomes' presence
32:47and the fact that he isn't playing
32:49at his elite statistical level
32:53distracts people from how good the Chiefs defense is.
32:56And obviously the Bills are coming off a game
32:58in which they didn't do a lot offensively.
33:01I am concerned about their lack of explosiveness
33:04offensively outside of anybody named Josh Allen.
33:07So Khalil Shakir had a good game.
33:10He is at times their biggest playmaker.
33:14And I just think that's an issue
33:15for them going up against the Chiefs
33:17who still have Travis Kelsey that can play
33:21at an elite level.
33:22So I think I absolutely give both defenses respect.
33:28The last three meetings that they've had in the playoffs
33:32have all been overs,
33:33or at least over this 47 and a half number.
33:36But I would be inclined to bet the under on this one
33:39as I think both defenses have been excellent this season
33:43and still don't get the requisite respect that they deserve.
33:49It's kind of crazy, Mike,
33:49because we're looking at two teams
33:52that I think we can all agree are not as good
33:56as we've seen their teams in the past.
33:59Buffalo, we just keep hearing they're not as good.
34:02They don't have the weapons that they've had in the past.
34:05They're not maybe as big on defense.
34:08And yet Mahomes and this offense is not what it was.
34:11Like, okay, but yet here they are, Mike.
34:14These two teams that aren't as good
34:15as they've been in the past are getting ready to battle
34:18for a trip to the Super Bowl.
34:21And the big question is,
34:23can Buffalo finally break through at Mahomes
34:27or is he just going to win every one of these?
34:30At some point you can't keep winning one score games, right?
34:33At some point there's gotta be regression.
34:36Is this the time it comes?
34:39It certainly could.
34:40I think the Bills are good enough to beat them.
34:42I don't think this is a blowout
34:44and the Chiefs haven't really been blowing teams out
34:46other than the Steelers on Christmas day.
34:49So Josh Allen is going to have to be perfect
34:54in the way that he has been recently,
34:56not turning the ball over.
34:57I don't think you get the blow up Josh Allen game
35:00that you've gotten in years past
35:02where he turns the ball over recklessly.
35:04In fact, the other day,
35:05I thought that that play down near the goal line
35:09where he was wrapped up
35:10and thought about pitching the ball back to James Cook.
35:13He didn't do it,
35:14which is maybe the biggest piece of evolution in his career.
35:19He was really good in making sure he kept that ball
35:23tucked in tight.
35:24So they'll have to play clean.
35:26I think that this Kansas City defense,
35:29again, the presence of Mahomes distracts people
35:31from how good this defense is.
35:33And I think that George Karloff,
35:35this with three sacks and Chris Jones
35:37and Amenu were awesome the other day against the Texans.
35:42And I think they could be again.
35:44So I'm leaning towards the Chiefs.
35:47I don't think a point and a half is enough,
35:50but like I said, money line it
35:53and be happy on Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening.
35:58Expectations, we were supposed to get
36:00the Kansas City Chiefs first even
36:01either the Ravens or the Bills entering into the playoffs.
36:05Not the same thing in the NFC.
36:06We expected the Eagles and Detroit to be in this game.
36:08It's the Eagles and the commanders.
36:10Now up to six and a half as a favorite live
36:13this morning on the Fandles Sportsbook
36:14and 47 and a half.
36:16Quick thoughts on that one, Mike.
36:18Yeah, so I heard you guys talking earlier.
36:21This is one of the most brilliant rookie campaigns
36:23in NFL history.
36:25If he wins this,
36:25it will be the most brilliant rookie campaign
36:28in NFL history.
36:29So, I don't know that there's a team
36:32that's gone 14 and one in their last 15 games
36:36that people dislike as much as this Philadelphia Eagles team.
36:38It's really amazing.
36:40It's amazing.
36:42And I think we're gonna win.
36:43We all love the Eagles.
36:44Sports grid loves the Eagles.
36:45They're gonna win this weekend.
36:46Mike Lewis said it.
36:47At least I think he just said it there.
36:49We'll talk face to public next.
36:50Thanks Mike for joining us on the show.
36:53It's a heavyweight championship bout.
36:56We saw one last week in the National Football League.
36:58It was in Buffalo.
36:59It was fantastic.
37:00And it came down to a drop two point conversion.
37:02Otherwise, we might've been going to overtime
37:04for the right to play the Kansas City Chiefs.
37:06It's the Buffalo Bills
37:08and the Kansas City Chiefs this weekend.
37:10At the FanBlue Sportsbook,
37:11currently listed the Chiefs
37:12as a minus one and a half point favorite.
37:15A 15 win football team at home
37:19trying to win a third straight Super Bowl.
37:21Not all that injured and only laying one and a half.
37:24Things that make you say, hmm.
37:26And a total of 47 and a half.
37:29So while we look at these two football teams, Joe,
37:3215 and two Kansas City, 13 and four Buffalo Bills,
37:35we still look back.
37:36These teams played this year already.
37:38It was in Buffalo
37:39and Buffalo was the better football team.
37:41But if we go back over the history
37:43of let's just say the past five years in the playoffs,
37:45your nemesis as a Buffalo Bills fan
37:48is the Kansas City Chiefs.
37:50So let's start there.
37:51These two teams playing.
37:52Bills won the game this year.
37:54The Bills can't beat the Chiefs in the playoffs.
37:56What's gonna give this weekend?
37:59It's kind of crazy, Donnie, when you think about it, right?
38:02The Chiefs now appearing
38:03in their seventh straight AFC championship game.
38:07They're 42 heading into this game in the previous six.
38:11They also have what?
38:12Three Super Bowl wins along the way.
38:15And trying to become the first team in NFL history
38:18with three straight Super Bowls.
38:20It's just bonkers.
38:22How good this team has been.
38:25We stepped away from the Tom Brady era
38:27and here we go with the Patrick Mahomes era and Andy Reid.
38:31And yet, can this finally be the year
38:34like when Peyton Manning finally had the breakthrough
38:38and was able to get by Brady and company?
38:40Is this the year that Josh Allen does?
38:43I'll say this.
38:45I have been saying it for a while,
38:48watching this team a lot
38:50and having been a big supporter of the Buffalo Bills
38:54over the last five years since the Josh Allen draft.
38:58There is something different about this team this year.
39:01I don't know how to put my finger on it
39:03because they're not the most talented
39:06as they have been in years past, Donnie.
39:08But this looks like a different Josh Allen.
39:11This looks like a different motivated Buffalo Bills team.
39:16This is not the wide-eyed,
39:18we're hoping we can get past Mahomes.
39:22You saw it when they played the first go-around
39:24in Orchard Park.
39:25And I think you're gonna see it again in this one here.
39:28There's just something different about this Buffalo team.
39:31Their focus, their mentality, a chip on their shoulder.
39:35Yeah, it's very hard for me to look at Buffalo
39:39and think they're not gonna have an opportunity
39:41to play for a championship because I believe they are.
39:45You're right.
39:46And it's not the most talented Buffalo team
39:47that we saw the past couple of years.
39:48Some of you are saying like,
39:49wow, their best chances were probably in the past.
39:50Not necessarily, because the one thing we always asked for
39:53for a quarterback like Josh Allen,
39:55he just can't be your lead running back.
39:56James Cook has been phenomenal this year,
39:59handing off the football, scoring touchdowns,
40:01making plays in the passing game.
40:02That's really helped them out.
40:04But also understand this, you are going into Kansas City.
40:07It's gonna be colder temperatures.
40:08Buffalo's used to that here.
40:09Buffalo has been in positions, Joe,
40:11to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in the playoffs
40:14and just haven't been able to get it done
40:17in some of the craziest circumstances possible.
40:19But the one thing we do look at,
40:21the detail of the tape, points per game,
40:2331 points for the Buffalo Bills this year.
40:25The Kansas City Chiefs, 22.6.
40:27The margin of victory is usually razor thin
40:30in Chiefs game and rightfully so,
40:32because they're not scoring as much.
40:33What I'm interested to see is,
40:35usually Kansas City, with that great defense
40:37under Steve Spagnola, can usually set the tone for the game.
40:40And the Chiefs go, right, Joe, we'll score when we need to.
40:43We won't turn the football over,
40:45but the games will be close,
40:46which again, increases that margin for error.
40:48I would love to see if the Buffalo Bills come out
40:51and take the lead in this game
40:52so we can get that old Kansas City Chiefs team
40:55where you have a swashbuckler quarterback
40:56making every throw possible
40:58and pushing the football down the field.
41:00That's the matchup that I'm most looking forward to.
41:02But also, just looking at the line itself,
41:05it's only one and a half.
41:06And Mike Blute was on with us,
41:07and rightfully so, it's thinking about,
41:09this team won 15 games.
41:11They're at home.
41:12They win at home at a crazy margin.
41:15They're used to playing in AFC championship games.
41:18They're used to being in the Super Bowl
41:19and winning Super Bowls.
41:21Why is this line only one and a half?
41:23Is that a trick shot here from the sports books?
41:27Yeah, and the question is, Donnie,
41:29where does it go from here, right?
41:31Are we going to see a little bit later?
41:34Are we going to get this to two and a half?
41:37Will it get to that point?
41:39And I think already what you're seeing
41:41is a lot of teaser opportunities
41:43by getting the Buffalo Bills over a touchdown here,
41:47which I think is a great opportunity also.
41:50So it's going to be interesting to see,
41:54does this get to a pick-em,
41:55or does this go closer to the two,
41:58two and a half mark with Kansas City?
42:01Quite honestly, I think if it's going to go anywhere,
42:04it's going to go down.
42:05It's going to go maybe to a pick-em by the time we get it,
42:10because I just think there's far too much liability
42:14for sports books if you push this thing up
42:17and give the Buffalo Bills an opportunity
42:19to get in a six-point teaser eight and a half points.
42:22I just don't see the books opening themselves up for that.
42:25I think if anything, I think it's going to go down,
42:28and I think that's where the money is going to come in late
42:30here with the Buffalo Bills.
42:33I'm so intrigued by this game.
42:34I really am, because it just baffles your mind.
42:37We understand this, and it used to be that way
42:39a little bit with Tom Brady and the Patriots.
42:40If you hung a spread that goes,
42:42you're just asking them to win the football game
42:45in the playoffs in a big moment with Tom Brady,
42:47I get the same vibes from Andy Reid,
42:49the best coach in the NFL.
42:50Spagnuolo, the most underrated defensive coordinator
42:53who every week brings the pain with some unbelievable scheme
42:56to take away your best football players,
42:58but there is that Josh Allen effect,
43:00and it's crazy to say Patrick Mahomes might go down, Joe,
43:03as the best quarterback we've ever seen statistically
43:06and winning Super Bowl-wide,
43:08but I got to tell you, I actually think I'd rather have
43:10Josh Allen in this football game than Patrick Mahomes.
43:12Am I crazy thinking that?
43:14Yeah, yeah, yeah, you're not.
43:17And again, there's levels to this.
43:20Mahomes is not going to win every one of them.
43:22I know everybody thought Brady was going to win
43:24every one of them too,
43:25but he ended up losing quite a few along the way here.
43:28So I do think the Chiefs this season are,
43:35they are absolutely beatable.
43:37This is not the Chiefs teams.
43:38I think they've had better teams in years past,
43:42and I don't think this is one of the better Chiefs teams,
43:45and I think they've had a lot go their way,
43:48and I do think the Buffalo Bills
43:50have a pretty good opportunity.
43:51If you're ever going to get over on Mahomes and read,
43:53I think this is the year to do it.
43:56And also look at, we're not going to be worried
43:58about weather.
43:58It's not a dome team going outdoors.
43:59It's the Buffalo Bills playing in 30 degree temperatures,
44:02no precipitation in the forecast,
44:04and winds show under five miles per hour.
44:06May the best team win.
44:08No excuses.
44:09That's the way we like it.
44:10NFC action on Deck Next.
44:13We'll talk about it.
44:14It was a snow globe for most of the game
44:16in South Philadelphia last week
44:17between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams.
44:20Looked like the Eagles were going to run away with that game
44:22then the Rams would come back,
44:23then the Eagles would run away with it,
44:24then the Rams would come back,
44:25and the Eagles almost had one of the more devastating losses
44:28in their franchise history,
44:29which certainly is saying something.
44:31They hold on for a six point victory over the Rams
44:33to advance to the NFC Championship game,
44:35but the Washington Commanders went the hard way.
44:38That means they went into Detroit against the top seed,
44:41getting close to double digit points early last week.
44:44Ran game time seven and a half to eight,
44:45depending on where you're getting those lines at
44:47from the fans' little sports book,
44:48but here we find ourselves now.
44:50Commanders, Eagles, one win away each team
44:53from playing in the Super Bowl against the AFC's best,
44:56which we just previewed, between Buffalo and Kansas City.
44:59The interesting part about this is
45:01you watch the football game that played out in Philadelphia.
45:03The Eagles are the better team.
45:04Yes, they are, but Jalen Hurts goes down,
45:07bangs up that knee.
45:08Quinion Mitchell, one of the better young quarterbacks
45:10in the NFL, hurts his shoulder.
45:12It looks like they'll be okay for this Sunday's game,
45:15but we know what that means, Joe.
45:17Play on it a little bit, doesn't work out,
45:19you head into the blue tent, things aren't going your way,
45:22but that doesn't stop the odds makers,
45:24because at the FanDuel Sportsbook show,
45:26four and a half was the opening line in New Jersey
45:28for the Eagles as the favorite,
45:30and this morning, we were looking at five and a halves,
45:32as you see that graphic.
45:33Live right now, FanDuel, six and a half points here,
45:37the line running, Joe, in the Eagles' direction.
45:41And that doesn't surprise me in the least bit.
45:44I mean, obviously, we have two games
45:48that people are gonna be looking at
45:50that we've already seen these two teams play,
45:51but we should also make sure that people understand
45:55the context in the two games.
45:57The first game, if you recall, Donny,
45:59was a Thursday night game.
46:01I believe the Eagles were a four
46:03or four and a half point favorite.
46:04The total was just about 50, and that game was 10-6.
46:09Washington was leading 10-6 heading into the fourth quarter,
46:13and then the Eagles ripped off 20 points in a row,
46:17as I believe they scored two touchdowns in 20 seconds
46:20because of an interception with Jaden Daniels,
46:23and Saquon ran wild in there.
46:25And then, of course, the other game,
46:27Jalen Hurts left, right, the concussion?
46:29He left early in the first quarter, did not return,
46:33and the Eagles were up in that game 27-14,
46:36and Pickard was doing his thing,
46:39but then they gave up 22 points in the fourth quarter,
46:42and all of a sudden, everything changed.
46:45So two very different games, ultimately,
46:49that we ended up getting from these two teams.
46:51The bottom line is a third go-around here.
46:55Boy, this is gonna be interesting.
46:57Does this thing get to seven?
46:59I don't think so.
47:00I think it's gonna hover around the six,
47:03six and a half mark.
47:04I think it's gonna stay just under a touchdown here,
47:08but there are some question marks
47:09around the health of Jalen Hurts here,
47:13and can the commanders,
47:15can they learn from those previous two games?
47:17Because in the first game, three quarters,
47:20they dominated Philadelphia in that game,
47:23and then the mistakes by a rookie quarterback
47:26ended up costing them.
47:28Not the same in that second game
47:30where the rookie quarterback made a lot of big plays
47:33when he needed to in order to come back and win that game.
47:36So what version do we get in this round three here, Donny?
47:41Yeah, it's a great point you bring up
47:43because if you are looking at both of those games,
47:45you can't take all that much out of those
47:47because why?
47:47A rookie quarterback with his first true
47:49Thursday night football game against a division rival,
47:51and if you remember, Joe,
47:53a little bit of those ribs banged up coming into that game,
47:55didn't play all that great.
47:56Then you go into the next game and say,
47:58yes, Washington did win.
47:59Unbelievable comeback from Jaden Daniels,
48:01but Jalen Hurts, who ran for 41 yards
48:04halfway through the first quarter,
48:06gets knocked down, Kenny Pickett comes in,
48:07still should've won the game, but they lost,
48:09and that's a credit to Washington
48:10for hanging around that game
48:12and getting, I think, five touchdown passes
48:14out of Jaden Daniels, which was incredible.
48:15But again, looking at the tale of tape,
48:17these two teams do like to score points,
48:19each averaging roughly four touchdowns per game,
48:22and the Philadelphia Eagles, early in the season,
48:24one of the worst teams in football
48:26at scoring in the first quarter,
48:27should I say not scoring in the first quarter,
48:29because they never scored there,
48:30playing much better to open up games.
48:32But you're right, the question marks on Jalen Hurts.
48:35The reason that makes him an efficient quarterback
48:36is he can escape the pocket.
48:38You saw that early on against the Rams.
48:40Good weather conditions, healthy at the time,
48:4240-plus yard touchdown run, the longest of his career.
48:45You get that same thing, because the one thing you know,
48:47if the play breaks down for the Washington Commanders,
48:50Jaden Daniels will make a play, and he's been doing that.
48:53And also, Joe, the whole concept of,
48:55man, you're expecting a rookie quarterback
48:57to win playoff games.
48:59He'd be lucky to get one, and specifically, it's at home.
49:01Jaden Daniels on the road as a dog,
49:03taking on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
49:05That was a victory.
49:06Jaden Daniels playing the number one seed,
49:08awful bye, in the biggest game in that franchise's history,
49:12at home, against an offensive juggernaut.
49:15They win that game by double digits.
49:17That's as impressive as it gets.
49:19We got a lot more concepts to go over,
49:21which includes some of these actual numbers on the game
49:24for the players themselves, from a prop perspective.
49:27Let's have some fun.
49:28It's early in the week.
49:29That doesn't mean we don't need to get you ready
49:30for these games on Sunday afternoon,
49:32and we will do that next.
49:34If you're not having fun yet, I don't know what you're doing.
49:36The information is hot.
49:37The vibes are high.
49:38We're getting you ready for this weekend's action.
49:40We recapped an exciting game last night.
49:42We got NBA on the docket for just a few times here,
49:46over the next hour or so.
49:47Let's have some fun.
49:48Let's bring it in.
49:49On my right side, Joe Ranieri.
49:50But now, let's get the prop perspective.
49:52Let's get the man of the hour.
49:53It's Tom Vecchio, joins the early line here
49:56on a Tuesday morning.
49:57Tom, what's good?
49:58I'm doing good, of course.
49:59Thanks for having me.
50:00We have, obviously, the two biggest games
50:02of the NFL year coming up.
50:03We got some basketball in between now and then.
50:06I'm ready to roll.
50:08Let's do it.
50:09Let's roll it right out here,
50:10because we got AFC-NFC Championship weekend.
50:13Exciting matchups here.
50:14Doesn't look like we're looking at a lot
50:16of weather conditions that could hurt us here.
50:18Totals both hitting 47 and a half,
50:20but let's focus on game number two on Sunday.
50:23Buffalo and Kansas City.
50:24Slight favor for Kansas City, Tom.
50:26Minus one and a half.
50:27Total of 47 and a half.
50:29These two teams met earlier this year.
50:30The Buffalo Bills picked up the victory,
50:32but this is the playoffs.
50:33This is what Patrick Mahomes does.
50:35He just wins.
50:36Looking at this game, what was your first look
50:38when you saw a slight favor for Kansas City
50:41and that total at 47 and a half?
50:43So, I actually grabbed the total at 48 and a half or 49.
50:47I forget what it is.
50:48I'm gonna have to double check,
50:49but immediately on the under on that.
50:50You know, this is a game
50:51that I think both teams want to reel in.
50:53Like, we have failed to see,
50:54or, you know, the sort of Kansas City is all,
50:56they're barely reaching 30 points this year,
50:58and of course they have a great defense.
50:59And, you know, on the other side for Buffalo,
51:01it's like, do they really want to turn this into a shootout?
51:04Like, that's the question I have is like,
51:05are we going to see 60 points in this game,
51:07or are we going to see on the 40 side?
51:08Which is a more likely outcome?
51:10And how do the Bills want to play this?
51:12I think they want to keep this kind of close to the vest
51:14and limit the chances that Mahomes has.
51:16Like, how many times have we seen Mahomes with the ball
51:18with four minutes left, three minutes left?
51:19Like, they want to take those chances away,
51:21and that just means running the ball.
51:22And I think that opens up a lot of opportunity
51:24in the backfield for Buffalo.
51:26I actually don't necessarily think
51:27it's going to be a big James Cook game.
51:29Not saying he's not going to have a good game.
51:31It's just that with Ty Johnson and Ray Davis involved,
51:34there's just so many options that they can extend drives.
51:37I think that would be the goal for Buffalo
51:38to come away with a win.
51:40It wasn't great for Josh Allen, but it didn't need to be
51:46because they ended up winning the turnover battle,
51:49and he gets it done.
51:50So when you're looking at some props in this game here,
51:54if we're thinking the under, are we
51:57looking at unders in certain guys on both teams here?
52:01How are you approaching it?
52:02So again, I think this has to be a run first game for Buffalo.
52:06So I want to immediately turn to some unders
52:09on Keon Coleman, the rookie receiver for Buffalo.
52:12And we have seen him get very limited chances
52:15throughout the regular season.
52:16Now, those chances do happen to be downfield.
52:19There are some games that he's come away with two, three,
52:21maybe four targets.
52:22But those targets are 20, 30 yards down the field.
52:25Some games, he has one reception for 40-some-odd yards.
52:28So I like him under 23 and 1⁄2 yards.
52:31There's a chance.
52:32My thought process is, how many bites of the apple
52:34is he going to have at this?
52:35It may only be two or three targets,
52:36but one of those targets could put him over on this.
52:39So I understand that there may be some hesitancy for people.
52:41But at the end of the day, Khalil Shakir
52:43is that number one option for the Bills.
52:44After that, it's going to be Dalton Cade or James Cook
52:47coming out of the backfield.
52:48And then Matt Collins is being involved.
52:50Curtis Samuels is being involved.
52:51I just don't know how many chances Keon Coleman will have
52:53to actually go over 23 and 1⁄2.
52:55It may only be one catch for 30 yards,
52:57but I'm willing to go with the under on this.
53:00I love the matchup.
53:01I can't wait to let it play out here.
53:02You're looking at two exciting quarterbacks,
53:04two great football teams looking to get to the Super Bowl.
53:06It should be a great one from start to finish.
53:08And those odds at the Fandu Sportsbook at minus 1 and 1⁄2,
53:11they're expecting a close game as well.
53:13In Philadelphia, we do have some line movement here.
53:15The 3 o'clock game on Sunday afternoon
53:17for the NFC Supremacy, it's Washington, it's Philadelphia,
53:20it's Jaden Daniels.
53:21And we think it's going to be Jalen Hurts
53:24based on some of the reports we have.
53:25But the odds market, Tom,
53:274 and 1⁄2 at the opening number.
53:28Ooh, wonder if we get Jalen Hurts.
53:30We're now seeing 6 and 1⁄2
53:31at the Fandu Sportsbook this morning.
53:33And also another key number, 47 and 1⁄2.
53:36Similar to what we're seeing in Buffalo and Kansas City.
53:38What are your thoughts on Washington
53:40and Philadelphia early week?
53:42Yeah, obviously the line movement is interesting.
53:44Like I said, 4 and 1⁄2, now up to 6 and 1⁄2.
53:46The total, I have a tough time.
53:48Like, I want to take the under
53:50just because I think that's the play,
53:51like what we should be seeing from these teams
53:53at this point in the season.
53:54But man, with the offenses that they've had
53:57and recent results from these two teams,
53:59it is really, really tough to take an under,
54:01especially if Saquon's going to break off some 60-yard run.
54:04He's going to push his game over by himself.
54:06So I have a really, really tough time with the under.
54:08I would lean there.
54:10Ultimately, I want it to start off slow.
54:11And as I always say, I want a live over.
54:13If this starts off slow and get like a live over 41,
54:16I think that would be an awesome spot to look.
54:18I actually have a lot of interest
54:19when it comes to Daniels in the prop market,
54:21specifically over 21 and a half completions.
54:24He's been over this in eight straight games,
54:25not including the last game of the season versus Dallas
54:27when he obviously didn't play the full game.
54:28But this has been the calling card
54:30for Washington this entire season.
54:32We've put Kings bearers like short passes,
54:34pick up first downs, move the ball effectively,
54:36limit turnovers, and really put Daniels
54:38in a good spot to succeed in the offense.
54:39So I like the completions.
54:40And I don't mind the over 15 and a half
54:42versus longest rush.
54:44His rushing yards was sitting up at 55 and a half,
54:46but if he's going to be forced out of the pocket,
54:47if I do expect the commanders to be playing from behind,
54:49obviously with the pressure that the Eagles can bring,
54:52Daniels scrambling for yards,
54:53I do think is a pretty viable outcome this weekend as well.
54:57So I'm trying to figure it out, Tom,
55:00but I'm curious as to who does this benefit
55:02having seen each other twice?
55:04Does it help Daniels seeing this defense now
55:08for a third time, or does it help the defense
55:10seeing him for a third time?
55:12Because he's had some success in both games.
55:15And I don't know if the Eagles can fully stop him here.
55:19So it's, I think whatever the answer is,
55:23there's your winner.
55:24The question is, who does it benefit?
55:26Right.
55:27And I want to say that Daniels will have success
55:32in terms of yards and stats and hitting overs,
55:35but I do think the Eagles will come away with the win.
55:37So he may have like a little bit of a leg up
55:39where we will see him hit some overs.
55:41He hits some yards.
55:42Again, I think the completions will be there,
55:44but I think the Eagles are just a better team overall.
55:47So could he go, I think is what his passing line
55:49is at 222 or 230, whatever it is.
55:51Could I see him go for 250?
55:52Sure.
55:53Does he do that in a losing effort?
55:55Maybe.
55:56And I think that's what the outcome will be.
55:57So it does benefit him,
55:58but the Eagles are still the better team.
56:01Coming into the playoffs,
56:02you're playing on the Green Bay Packers.
56:04You have a very good defense here.
56:05Jalen Hurts didn't have to do all that much
56:06operating from the pocket
56:07through a couple of touchdown passes,
56:08but they lead on Saquon Barkley.
56:10Fast forward to the next week against the Los Angeles Rams.
56:13Bad weather conditions.
56:14Jalen Hurts banged up a little bit in that game.
56:15Didn't have to do much in the passing game.
56:17Ran early before he got injured in Saquon Barkley.
56:20Once again, a monster.
56:21The question I want to ask you is,
56:22you're now getting some really good pricing on A.J. Brown
56:25and Devontae Smith.
56:26Is that a way that you would look maybe later in the week
56:28or up to the game,
56:29depending on how healthy it looks like
56:30Jalen Hurts is going to be?
56:32Yeah, on Sunday night when I was doing the recap show
56:34after these lines were first posted,
56:36I saw A.J. Brown at 16 and a half.
56:37I would have to double check to see what it is exactly now,
56:40but between A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, and Dallas Goddard,
56:43I think two of the three go over.
56:45That's the kind, and I think Saquon,
56:46obviously, will get his yards.
56:47He'll have 100 plus combined, 120 plus combined,
56:49whatever it is.
56:50But when it comes to the receiving market specifically,
56:52Brown, Smith, Goddard, two of the three go over.
56:55If the number dips to 58 or so for Brown,
56:57that's a spot I'll be willing to buy into.
56:59I also will have a lot of interest
57:00when it comes to A.J. Brown's touchdown prop.
57:03I think he can have the touchdown prop,
57:04he can cash that in,
57:05but may actually still hit less than 60 yards.
57:07So I think it will be a Saquon first team, of course,
57:10and maybe a little bit of Goddard, a little bit of Smith,
57:11but Brown, I'm a little bit hesitant on.
57:15McLaren's going to be interesting with Washington too,
57:18because they seem to be spreading the ball around
57:21a lot more.
57:22Is Brown getting a bunch of targets besides Terry?
57:25Like, who do you focus in on, on the Washington side?
57:29No, I really liked De'Ami Brown.
57:30I actually tweeted that out on Sunday night
57:32when I was doing the recap show.
57:33Over three and a half receptions for him,
57:35and that line is moving a little bit.
57:36It was minus 130, it's now up to minus 150.
57:39Like, McLaren, we know, is their best player in offense.
57:41I think we'd all agree with that,
57:42but the defense is going to be focusing in on him,
57:45diverting extra resources to him.
57:46So De'Ami Brown has been legit awesome.
57:48And if we look back over the entire season,
57:50like, we can't just take a season average,
57:51because in the beginning of the year,
57:52he was getting like one, two, three targets in some games.
57:55So we have to actually look at the last portion of the season,
57:58specifically in the playoffs.
57:59He has been awesome, seeing six, seven, eight targets.
58:01So getting three or four catches on eight targets,
58:03I think will put them live for this,
58:04especially if they're playing from behind.